Normally the Stop and Go move is a tournament play because stacks are so much shorter. The lite 4-bet shortened the stacks to the point that it was relevant in this hand. I really expect that the LAG is opening and raising lite. It only take so long at the table to know that the guy can not have a hand this often. Time to attack back.
The first major decision. Do I try and flop a set for $20, or do I squeeze for value for $125? I like the squeeze myself. I might take it down immediately, or I likely get heads up in a $300 pot with a decent pocket pair and $375 back. I likely shove any flop with that stack to pot ratio.
The LAG is having none of this. He re-raises and clears out the competition. He is completely capable of making this move with hands that I am absolutely crushing, like lower pocket pairs, and dominated Jacks. He always has better hands like QQ+ in his range here too. What I am thinking about though are hands like AQ+, KQ+. Why am I thinking about those?
Since he has a relatively weak range here, I already know I am never folding this hand to this guy. I could just shove it all in right now, but I suspect I am getting almost zero folds right now for $175 into a $700 pot. Against unpaired overcards, I am getting into a coin flip for $1200. He is not making a mistake to call it off.
However, imagine he has those same two unpaired overcards and flops no pair, no draw and I donk-bet shove into him. He has 25% equity on a flop like 369r against this particular hand, that is 25% of ($700+$175) or $256. He should call off the $175. However, it is possible that he gives up when his cards miss on the flop.
Since this bad fold on the flop is the most plausible mistake he can make I need to give him a chance to make it. I am already resolved to shoving it in blind anyways, so I might as well hope he gives up some equity in those cases.
